The tide may be turning for commodity stocks, says Turner Investment Partners commentary, 6.17.08 BERWYN, Pa., June 17, 2008 – The commodities boom, reflected in skyrocketing prices for items ranging from oil to soybeans, has led to a bubble in the prices of commodity stocks that’s poised to burst. That’s the conclusion of the latest Taking Stock commentary by members of the Quantitative Investing Team at Turner Investment Partners. The commentary, entitled Is the tide turning for commodities?, notes that robust global economic growth over the past five years has contributed to certain commodity prices tripling or even quadrupling. The commentary’s authors -- Jennifer Clark, quantitative analyst/portfolio manager; David Kovacs, chief investment officer, quantitative strategies; and Jeff Riggs, quantitative analyst -- observe that in response, commodity stocks in aggregate have been soaring. Turner’s proprietary quantitative model employs certain momentum factors that provide signals of a bubble ready to pop -- factors such as extreme rates of change in the 50-day moving average, the frequency of Wall Street analysts’ upward revisions in earnings estimates, and soaring valuations. The analysts note, "When the returns of stocks that rank highly on these and other factors are more than two points of standard deviation from the average returns of all stocks in their sectors…we believe those sectors are extremely vulnerable to a significant correction." That’s the case now in the energy and materials/processing sectors, and the quantitative model is pointing to a potential burst in coal, agricultural-chemicals, steel, precious-metals, contract-drilling, and oil/gas-production stocks in the near future. Likening the commodity-stock bubble to a waning tide whose rocks are starting to surface, the piece concludes, "It may be time to get out of the water." To read the second quarter 2008 Taking Stock commentary in its entirety, see the Turner Investment Partners Web site, http://www.turnerinvestments.com/takingstock. Or call 484-329-2439 for a free copy of the piece.
The views expressed represent the opinions of Turner Investment Partners as of the date indicated and may change. They are not intended as a forecast, a guarantee of future results, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Opinions about individual securities mentioned may change, and there can be no guarantee that Turner will select and hold any particular security for its client portfolios. Earnings growth may not result in an increase in share price. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Turner Investment Partners, founded in 1990 and based in Berwyn, Pennsylvania, is an investment firm that manages more than $25 billion in stocks in separately managed accounts and mutual funds for institutions and individuals, as of March 31, 2008. |